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- Russia and its neighbors : United States policy choices
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Eligibility checker. More videos. Sign up. Sectors we work in View list of sectors and key topics. Structure and staff. On average, countries across the EBRD regions are now expected to see a contraction of 0.
On the positive side, the oil price decline - and resulting improvements in terms of trade - could help soften the impact on emerging economies of the expected normalisation of U.
Как создать шаблон в сбербанкон
The halving of oil prices has added to problems in Russia, whose economic growth was already slowing down amid uncertainty and weak investor confidence after the imposition of sanctions in Energy exporters Kazakhstan , Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have also been negatively affected by the lower prices. Even for energy importers in eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the oil price fall is a mixed blessing, as benefits are being outweighed by lower export demand and remittances from a weakened Russia.
The economies of Armenia and Moldova are now expected to stagnate in , while in Belarus a contraction of 1. The depreciation of the rouble has increased pressures on the currencies of economies with strong trade, investment and remittances ties to Russia, with the sharpest declines seen in Belarus, Turkmenistan and Armenia.
Russia and its neighbors : United States policy choices
The Ukrainian economy remains in a particularly precarious state, the report said. In addition to the impact of the conflict in the east of the country, there is currently uncertainty about the volume and timing of international financial assistance. After a sharp contraction in , a further fall of five percent is predicted for this year. The EBRD report said future developments depended on both external and domestic factors, including the ability of the Kiev government to implement a number of key reforms, a reduction of the regional geopolitical risks, an end of fighting in the Donbas and adequately timed and scaled international support.
The report said domestic demand was supporting growth in Central Europe and the Baltics CEB , where it was helping to offset weaker exports as growth in the eurozone remains anaemic.
Domestic demand was also a positive factor in some countries in south-eastern Europe SEE. However, developments there have been mixed.
Serbia entered a recession in , with an already fragile economy weakened further by flooding in May. The report said any uncertainty following elections in Greece on 25 January could weigh on the economies of central and south-eastern Europe. Turkey is expected to see growth of 3 per cent in , supported by the lower oil import bill and potential monetary easing.
However, continued weakness in external demand and lower spending by Russian tourists could be negative factors.
Сделать цветок из бумаги своими руками пошагово фото для начинающих
Lower oil prices will also be a positive factor in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region. However, significant benefits from oil prices may be partially offset by lower export demand, investment and remittances from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Credit growth remained subdued in central and south-eastern Europe. A reduction by foreign banks of their exposure to this region has been largely offset by the growth of the domestic deposit base.
Growth of credit to the corporate sector has remained particularly low and in many cases negative. High non-performing loans NPLs are a key reason for weak credit growth.
NPL ratios are close to 20 per cent in most countries in south-eastern Europe and Ukraine. In Kazakhstan they exceed 30 per cent while in Cyprus they are around 50 per cent, respectively.
Regional Economic Prospects These are also used in the regional average. Follow us More ways to follow. Follow us. Terms and conditions Cookies Sitemap.